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Selasa, 26 Oktober 2004 11:40
Dangerous G-force!
Penerbang pesawat tempur biasanya tak asing dengan tekanan yang bernama G-force, bahkan mereka juga diperengkapi oleh pakaian hingga sepatu yang mampu mengurangi tekanan yang besarnya bisa mencapai berkali-kali gaya gravitasi bumi. Pesawat tempur tercanggih saat ini seperti Euro Typhoon 2000, F 16 dan F 28 mungkin akan menjadi pesawat tempur terakhir yang memiliki pilot berupa manusia. Pada akhirnya manuver pesawat tempur generasi mendatang tidak akan lagi dapat dikendalikan oleh manusia.
Agak mirip dengan situasi itu adalah pendapat Federick Hayek tentang ekonomi yang bukunya bernama The Serf of Freedom yang dibuat 60 tahun yang lalu dalam konteks ekonomi tentunya. Permasalahan ekonomi jelas semakin sulit diselesaikan oleh G-force maksudnya adalah intervensi pemerintah termasuk G7 atau G10, G20, G24 dan G77. Dalam dimensi lainnya dapat berubah bentuk menjadi IMF, Bank Dunia ataupun UN.
Beberapa masalah ekonomi saat ini yang masih relevan seperti yang dikemukakan oleh Hayek dijabarkan oleh Rodrigo de Rato yang juga merupakan Managing Director IMF seperti yang dikutip oleh Jakarta Post, yaitu:
“The world is a study in contrasts nowadays. We are haunted by images of terror and warfare. Yet every region of the globe has experienced some of the strongest economic growth seen in years, inflation remains subdued despite surging oil prices, and financial markets are doing well. Several economies that recently faced financial crises are rebounding strongly. At the same time, much more needs to be done to help prevent future crises and reduce poverty. What do these contrasts mean for the future? The answer depends crucially on how each country and the international community respond to key policy challenges: Addressing global imbalances through macroeconomic policies and long-overdue reform; meeting the costs of aging populations; strengthening defenses against economic and financial crises; and delivering on the pressing imperatives of poverty reduction.”
Lebih lanjut ia mengatakan:
“Recently, financial leaders from 184 countries met in Washington at the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank(…) As IMF Managing Director, my message was one of vigilance and action. Simply put, the international community must take advantage of the current recovery to broaden efforts to ensure financial and economic stability, and help those countries with limited prospects. Periods of strong economic growth allow countries to put in place defenses to reduce the likelihood and severity of future downturns. But such opportunities are all too easy to squander. In an era of globalized financial markets(…) there is no time for complacency. A lesson of the 1990s is that vulnerabilities must be dealt with before they become crises(…) One priority is to reduce global payments imbalances(…) Other challenges loom. Issues that we once regarded as ‘medium-term’ are becoming more urgent. Aging populations are forcing many countries to address pressures on their budgets and social security systems(…) Then there is the energy issue. High oil prices have resurrected an old vulnerability. Countries need to reformulate their energy policies -- including by boosting production and refining capacity, diversifying energy sources, and giving new impetus to conservation. A better balance between production and consumption would avoid large swings in oil prices.”
Lantas apa yang bisa diharapkan dari IMF, lebih lanjut ia mengatakan kurang lebih sebagai berikut:
“The IMF focuses on crisis prevention, and in the past decade encouraged greater transparency and stronger financial systems. The Fund also actively monitors capital market developments, and is implementing a more systematic assessment of debt sustainability(…) We need to communicate our positions clearly to policymakers and reinforce incentives for countries to take appropriate corrective actions. But in the end, the effectiveness of our advice hinges on countries' willingness to act on our recommendations. Poverty also threatens economic stability(…) The IMF and World Bank would offer advice, expertise, and financing, with the Fund concentrating on the macroeconomic and financial stability that is crucial to fostering durable growth and poverty reduction(…) Strong political commitments are needed to provide the aid that is needed to accelerate progress, and to secure success for the Doha trade round that is so crucial for developing countries' longer-term prospects. The resilience of the global economy in the face of political and economic shocks demonstrates the central relevance of the reform process -- and underlines the importance of continuing along this path. Governments and institutions like the IMF must keep this in mind as they seek to ensure a durable economic recovery that will benefit all of the world's people.”
Apa yang ia katakan ada juga tidak benarnya, sebab sampai saat ini misalnya IMF tidak memberikan insentif yang jelas bagi negara-negara yang melakukan restrukturisasi hutang seperti yang diberitakan oleh Reuters dari Washington kemarin:
“The IMF should reward countries like Argentina at the end of a successful debt restructuring instead of before, a negotiator for creditors holding defaulted Argentine debt said yesterday. Adam Lerrick, a Carnegie Mellon University economist and negotiator for 40,000 European retail investors holding defaulted Argentine bonds, said under current rules the IMF approved loan payments to countries in arrears to private creditors as long as governments made "good faith" efforts to negotiate a debt restructuring. What you are doing, you are not rewarding the result of the debt restructuring, you're rewarding the effort," he told a seminar at the Cato Institute. But Lerrick said the IMF "good faith" rule should be replaced by an automatic financial incentive for countries to complete debt restructurings. He said it was often difficult for the IMF's board of shareholder governments to determine what constitutes "good faith" efforts in its quarterly review of IMF loan programs.”
Pemerintah negara besar telah kehilangan powernya termasuk juga IMF. Bahkan IMF telah menyebabkan peran pemerintah negara berkembang semakin mandul. Peran pemerintah yang rendah juga terlihat dari lemahnya kontribusi pemerintah Indonesia dalam membangunan ilmu pengatuhan dan teknologi (iptek). Padahal Iptek memang terbukti telah mengungkit produktivitas ekonomi. Seperti diungkapkan pakar ekonomi AS, Michael E Porter, bahwa selama lebih dari tiga abad sejak Revolusi Industri, iptek meningkatkan produktivitas industri 50 kali lipat.
Tengoklah Indeks Pencapaian Teknologi yang dikeluarkan UNDP tahun 2001 menempatkan Indonesia di urutan ke-61 dari 64 negara. Indonesia berada di urutan terbawah negara yang masuk kategori dynamic adopter, hanya terpaut satu tingkat di atas kelompok negara yang termarjinalkan dalam pencapaian teknologi. Selama ini, kegiatan riset sebagian besar masih bertumpu pada anggaran pemerintah dengan persentase 80 persen. Oleh karena itu, indikator lainnya adalah tercapainya rasio kontribusi anggaran nonpemerintah untuk kegiatan iptek hingga 50 persen.
Kejadian dimana peran pemerintah menjadi tidak efektif bahkan bias merusak dapat kita dihat pada kehancuran di Darfur dimana umat Islam membantai sesama umat Islam khususnya yang berkulit hitam. Simaklah beberapa petikan dari tulisan Scott Anderson tentang kejadian mengerikan itu:
“He sat warily on the very edge of his chair, his mouth set in a steady, nervous grin. He would not use his real name -- Bashom, he called himself -- out of fear that he would be arrested for crimes he had committed as a janjaweed in his native state of West Darfur. Not that he used the word janjaweed, either. ''Ever since I was a young boy,'' he said, ''I wanted to be a knight. We all did, my friends and I. So when I came of age -- about 14 or 15 -- I became a knight.'' In Bashom's telling, this initially consisted of guarding his tribal village against intruders: thieves, cattle rustlers, the ''knights'' of rival tribes. It was only when he was a bit older that he went out on raids himself. ''We would travel at night on our horses, so as to be outside the villages of our enemies very early in the morning,'' he said. ''Normally, we would spread out along one edge of the village -- because we didn't want a battle; we wanted them to run -- and then our leader would give the signal and we would attack.'' Now 30 and living in semi-hiding in a slum outside Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, Bashom claimed to have parted company with his band of knights several years ago, well before the marauding and massacres that have devastated Darfur and drawn international condemnation. Nonetheless, he was worried his past could come back to haunt him.” ''Because we did many bad things on these raids, you know?'' he said. ''And if the government is serious now about moving against the knights, well, maybe they will come for me.”
G-force atau government-force telah menjadi sebuah istilah yang sangat menyeramkan ! (-/-)
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