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Selasa, 23 Nopember 2004 12:41
Injak Rem ala Cina dan Kemenangan Bush!
Menarik mencermati surat David Dolar (David Dollar, China Country Director dari the World Bank ) kepada Financial Times minggu lalu yaitu :
“Your numerous articles and editorials on the People's Bank of China's recent decision to raise and liberalize interest rates have largely overlooked what may prove to be the most important consequence. Until now, lending by banks to micro, small and even medium-size businesses has been a lossmaking proposition due to loan interest rate caps. Except for credit co-operatives, these rate caps now have been eliminated."
Lebih lanjut ia mengatakan:
“For the first time banks will be able to service the credit needs of small businesses on a commercially sustainable basis.(...) Meeting their financial services needs may well prove the salvation of many Chinese banks.(...) This is a genuine milestone in financial sector reform in China, and one for which the authorities deserve credit. Now the task is to remove the remaining regulatory biases against cashflow-based lending to small businesses that have little tangible collateral to offer.”
Di pihak lain, kita juga menyaksikan kemenangan Bush sebagai presiden di Amerika Serikat. The Washington Post:
“U.S. President George W. Bush claimed a reelection victory yesterday after a tumultuous night of vote counting and a gracious concession by challenger John F. Kerry, and he pledged that he would seek to earn the trust of those who did not back him during the long, contentious campaign. In an explicit appeal to those Americans who voted for Kerry, Bush said: "To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support, and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust. A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation." Bush will begin his second term with strengthened majorities in the House and Senate. With GOP candidates picking off a string of Democratic open seats, Republicans expanded their Senate caucus from 51 to 55 members -- a significant gain but still not a filibuster-proof margin. Bush claimed 51% of the popular vote to Kerry's 48%, with a margin of about 3.5m, removing the label of minority president that he had carried since 2000. With Ohio in his column, Bush won 30 states and 279 electoral votes. Kerry won 19 states and the District for 252 electoral votes.”
Lantas, apa kira-kira kaitannya antara kenaikan tingkat suku bunga di Cina dan terpilihnya kembali Bush?
Perhatikan berita dari Reuter minggu lalu di bawah ini:
President Bush is likely to stick closely to the status quo in his economic team, leaving it up to top officials such as Treasury Secretary John Snow whether to stay or to go. Analysts and Republican officials say they expect Snow to stay on, at least temporarily, to push tax reforms and other domestic priorities.
Perhatikan pula berita dari Financial Times tentang dampak ekonomi dari terpilihnya Bush:
An election campaign dominated by security concerns and social issues has done little to define President Bush's agenda for the second term. Bush has pledged to halve the fiscal deficit over the next term and to make permanent the tax cuts, enacted during his first term, which are set to expire by 2011. During the campaign he stressed that reform of Social Security, including private accounts, would be a priority. But Bush has provided no more detail on how to do that than he did in the 2000 campaign. There have been hints on tax reform, but no concrete proposals. "I am not sure that the economic policy priorities are entirely crystallized," said Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business School and former chairman of Mr Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. However, he said the "A-list" included tax reform, Social Security reform, and efforts to improve the workings of healthcare markets.
Lantas bagaimana dampaknya bagi Uni Eropa? Jawabannya ada di dalam laporan Reuter pada minggu yang lalu yaitu:
The ECB held interest rates steady as expected today, buying itself more time to assess risks from rising inflation, costly oil and shaky economic growth. ECB policymakers decided to keep interest rates at 2% for the 17th month in a row, waiting to see whether the 55% surge in crude oil prices this year is driving up underlying inflation or whether economic recovery is running into strong headwinds that should hold inflation in check.
Juga perhatikan apa yang dilakukan oleh Inggris seperti yang diberitakan oleh Reuter minggu yang lalu sebagai berikut:
The Bank of England today left its key lending rate at 4.75% today for the third month in a row, and a growing number of economists now believe that the next move in interest rates will be down. Faced with a halving of economic growth between the second and third quarters and inflation dipping further below the Bank's target, only one out of 45 analysts had expected the central bank to raise rates this month. That represented a dramatic turnaround from a few weeks back when most still predicted a quarter percentage point hike by the year-end, following on from five increases since November 2003.
Di Bursa saham maupun komoditi di dunia juga ternyata terjadi kegairahan yang berlebihan dengan terpilihnya Bush. Berlebihan karena fundamental ekonomi Amerika Serikat sendiri yang masih mengalami defisit anggaran yang sebetulnya sampai saat ini belum ada program penyelesaian yang jelas.
Sementara itu, Cina sudah mulai menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya untuk menahan “panas” yang berlebihan dalam mesin ekonominya. Berhentinya mesin Cina akan berdampak cukup serius bagi perekonomian dunia.
Berita dari Dow Jones dari Beijing minggu kemaren tentang Cina berikut ini juga menarik untuk diperhatikan:
China will be quick to put monetary policy to use while continuing to attach close importance to economic development, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Li Ruogu was cited by state media as saying today. Li said China would also steadily promote reforms to liberalize the interest rate market while perfecting the exchange rate mechanism, the central bank-backed Financial News reported.
Sementara Uni Eropa dan Jepang mungkin akan bisa akomodatif terhadap kepetingan Amerika, namun jelas bahwa Beijing akan mempertahankan nilai tukar Yuan terhadap USD. Ini berarti semakin sulit bagi USD untuk memberikan dampak positif bagi perbaikan defisit di neraca perdagangan Amerika Serikat.
Twin Deficit yang dihadapi oleh Amerika Serikat tampaknya akan menjadi warna utama dari perekonomian dunia di masa lima tahun pemerintahan Bush mendatang!
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